Future scenarios of artificial intelligence development with media scanning method: case study of science-fiction films

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Faculty Member, Institute for Science and Technology Studies, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

2 Master of Technology Management, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Shahid Beheshti University

3 Faculty Member, Institute for Science and Technology Studies, Shahid Beheshti University

10.22059/imj.2024.375152.1008148

Abstract

Objective‌: Artificial intelligence is undergoing extensive changes in the nature of human life, and its effects are significant in the fields of employment, economy, communication, war, privacy, security, ethics, and health care. However, how it will evolve and its impact in the future is still uncertain. On the other hand, the future scenario of emerging technologies is a common approach to understand and analyze the complexity and uncertainties shaping the future and to be more prepared to face possible situations of their development. Also, scenario writing is done based on a wide range of different sources, including media content and science fiction writings. Cinema and science-fiction films have a long history of depicting the future of emerging technologies, especially the future of artificial intelligence in recent years. In this regard, the aim of this article is to present the future scenarios of the development of artificial intelligence in the world.

Methods: To conduct this research, first by reviewing the background and reports related to the future of artificial intelligence, the drivers shaping the future of artificial intelligence were identified, then with the opinion of experts and experts in artificial intelligence and by using the analysis of scientific films in the field of artificial intelligence, the drivers were identified. Determinant as noThe certainties shaping the future of artificial intelligence were selected (it should be noted that the selected films had an IMDB score higher than 6 and a structure and film analysis protocol were used to analyze the content of the films and identify the drivers in the films), then 9 scenarios were obtained from the intersection of the uncertainties. Which of the number of 4 scenarios of reasonableIt has been accepted.

Results: Among the 6 drivers identified, which are: social acceptance, scope of artificial intelligence development, singularity, cost-benefit of artificial intelligence, legality and regulation, government encouragement and support, 3 drivers of social acceptance, singularity, legality and regulation respectively with Scores of 4.40, 4.33 and 4.78 by experts as uncertaintiesThe shapers of the future of artificial intelligence were chosen, the combination of the different states of these uncertainties led to the extraction of four possible scenarios: "Domination of artificial intelligence", "Self-made enemy", "Artificial intelligence under human domination" and "Utopia: Synergy of humans and artificial intelligence". The scenario of the dominance of artificial intelligence over the world is a dystopian narrative of the future life of humans, that is, where artificial intelligence has taken over the power and pushed humans to the outskirts of cities. Artificial intelligence to a peaceful life withhave achieved each other, other scenarios are intermediate between these two scenarios.

Conclusion: According to our findings, "Utopia: Human and AI Synergy" are the most optimistic and "AI Domination of the World" are the most pessimistic scenarios of AI development. The findings of this article show that the advantages of artificial intelligence and its development are significant for governments and humans, and it is necessary to make appropriate policies to accelerate their realization. Also, the possible risks and challenges of artificial intelligence in the future also point out the need to legislate and restrict the development and applications of this technology.

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