پیش‎بینی زمان پروژه از طریق طول زمان کسب‎شده و مدیریت ریسک

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه مدیریت، دانشکدۀ مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

2 کارشناس‎ارشد مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکدۀ مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم تحقیقات، تهران، ایران

3 کارشناس‎ارشد، مهندسی پزشکی، دانشکدۀ مهندسی پزشکی، دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر، تهران، ایران

چکیده

بسیار مشاهده می­شود پروژه­ها از زمان و هزینۀ برنامه­ریزی‎شده عقب می­مانند؛ علل چنین مشکلاتی استفاده از روش­هایی است که جهت کنترل عملکرد پروژه به گذشته توجه می‎کنند. در پژوهش‎ حاضر برای نزدیک‎کردن برنامۀ زمان‎بندی و واقعیت از دو روش مدیریت طول زمان کسب­شده و مدیریت ریسک بهره گرفته شد تا در کنار دقت بالای روش اول، از آینده­نگری روش دوم استفاده شود و زمان‎بندی برنامه و واقعیت به یکدیگر نزدیک شوند. در این پژوهش ابتدا با استفاده از شبیه­سازی مونت کارلو حدود کنترلی شاخص­های عملکردی پروژه ایجاد شدند، سپس ریسک­های پروژه شناسایی گردیدند و پروژه تحت شرایطی که بحرانی­ترین ریسک ایجاد شود؛ شبیه­سازی شد و برای درصد­هایی که حدود کنترلی نقض شدند زمان پایان پروژه مجدداً اندازه­گیری شد. زمان پایان به‎دست‎آمده، حدود دو ماه بیشتر از زمان پایانی قبل از به‎کارگیری روش­ها را نشان می­دهد و بیان‎کنندۀ لزوم شناسایی ریسک­ها حین برنامه­ریزی پروژه‎هاست.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Forecasting project duration by Earned Duration Management and Risk Management

نویسندگان [English]

  • Akbar Alamtabriz 1
  • Farnoosh Khaledian 2
  • Mostafa Mehdipour 3
1 Prof., in Management, Shahidbeheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2 M.Sc. Student Industrial Management, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 MSc. Student Biomedical Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Being observed frequently that projects cannot achieve to their plan duration and their budget. Utilizing retrospective method is one of the reasons for this problem. In this research two method, Earned Duration Management and risk management, has been used to remove the gap of the plan and the reality; this enable the project to utilize both high accuracy of the first method and prophecy of the second tool. First, control limits were made by Monte Carlo simulation; then, the risks were recognized, after that, project was simulated under the condition that assumed critical risk has happened. At the end, if the simulated indexes violate the limits it will be a signal that program should be revised. The final estimated duration is about two month more than the row plan, that it shows the necessity of taking accounts of risks during planning.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Earned Duration Management
  • Risk Management
  • project statistical control
  • Risk Failure Mode and Effect Analysis
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