مدل سازی اثر تحریم های خارجی بر ایجاد ادعاهای پیمانکاری پروژه های طرح و ساخت کشور

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مدیریت پروژه و ساخت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

3 استادیار دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

4 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت، گرایش تحقیق در عملیات، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

ادعاها به ویژگی­های ذاتی صنعت ساخت تبدیل شده­اند. مطالعه­هایی برای شناسایی علل این ادعاها انجام شده است، اما این مقوله­ها هنوز رواج دارند. شاید دلیل این امر، نیاز به درک بهتر پیچیدگی بین متغیرهای علّی ایجاد ادعاست. در این راستا می­توان به وجود تحریم­ها در سال­های اخیر و آثار احتمالی آن بر صنعت ساخت و درنتیجه، بر ایجاد ادعا اشاره کرد؛ بنابراین، ابتدا با استفاده از اطلاعات جمع­آوری­شده، 15 علت ایجاد ادعا- که بر اثر اعمال تحریم­ها در پروژه­های طرح و ساخت به­وجود آمده است- مشخص شده و با استفاده از آن، یک مدل علّی - معلولی از تأثیر تحریم­ها بر ایجاد ادعا توسعه یافته است. سپس سیستم مورد مطالعه، در سه سناریو مختلف از اعمال تحریم­ها شبیه­سازی شده است. نتایج نشان می­دهد بروز تحریم­ها با تأثیر گذاشتن بر بعضی دیگر از جنبه­های پروژه، سبب بروز ادعاهای جدید می­شود و بر افزایش زمان و هزینه، به‌عنوان علل اصلی ایجاد ادعا اثر می­گذارد. این تأثیرها با افزایش شدت تحریم­ها افزایش می­یابد و موجب رشد شدید و نمایی ادعاهای پیمانکاران می­شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling the effect of external sanctions on contractor's claims in DB project in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahmoud Golabchi 1
  • Hadi Talkhabi 2
  • Majid Parchami Jalal 3
  • Mohammad Mirkazemi Mood 4
1 Prof., University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 MSc. Student in Project Management and Construction, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Prof., University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
4 PhD Candidate, Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Claimed have became one of the inherent attribute of construction industry. In order to determine the most appropriate strategy for prevention and resolution of these claims, some studies have been conducted to identify claim`s causes but they are common in construction industry. It seems that the reason of making these claims is a better understanding of complexity and the casual variables. In this regard, one can refer to sanctions and their possible effects on the construction industry over recent years, resulting in the creation of remarkable claims. A “cause and effect model” of the impact of sanctions on creating claims in DB project has developed by the information collected through interviews as well as the study of documents related to the recent claims. Then, the studied system is simulated under three different sanction scenarios.  The results show that incidence of sanctions influence other aspects of the project and will cause new claims and affect time and cost as the main causes of claims and this effect increases with the severity of sanctions thereby casuing vigorous growth and exponential claims.



 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • causes of claims
  • cause and effect model
  • sanctions
  • DB project
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