A System Dynamics Approach for Analyzing the Human Resource Changes in Sedan Tire Industry of Iran

Document Type : Research Paper


1 M.Sc. Student in Industrial Engineering, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran

2 Assistant Prof, Department of Industrial Engineering, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran


The human resource managers have to make strategic and
prospective decisions to respond to the unexpected changes in national
tire industry. In this regard, system dynamics is one of the most practical
tools for searching causal structures in systems, simulating their
behaviors against unpredicted variations, and making some reactive
policies for possible future conditions. We try to predict and sensitively
analyze the required human resource capacity of national sedan tire
industry over the horizon of Iran 1404 vision through developing a
system dynamics model. The structures of sedan tire industry are
designed based on Sterman’s methodology and the recent 10 years
corresponding data on the effective variables is identified. Collected data
described by mathematical equations is then considered as the model’s
input in Vensim. Based on the designed model, the behavior and final
results of variables are evaluated until the end of time horizon. Numerical
results indicated that the number of human resources employed in sedan
tire industry at the end of Iran 1404 vision will approximately be equal to
15000. By establishing a sensitivity analysis, the effect of the key
variables, particularly the demand, on sedan tire industry is examined and
suggestions for making macro-planning policies for production and
human resource in different conditions are provided.