ارزیابی پاسخ به ریسک در پروژه‌های پیچیده ساختمانی با استفاده از روش تاپسیس فازی

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مهندسی و مدیریت ساخت، دانشکده عمران، معماری و هنر، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

2 استاد، گروه مدیریت پروژه و ساخت، پردیس هنرهای زیبا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

3 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی و مدیریت ساخت، دانشکده عمران، معماری و هنر، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

هدف: در کل چرخه حیات پروژه‌های پیچیده، شناسایی و ارزیابی و فرایند اولویت‌بندی پاسخ به ریسک، برای مدیریت مؤثر، بسیار ضروری و دشوار است. تجربه نشان داده است که موضوع پیچیدگی و ریسک‌های ناشی از آن، به‌دلیل داشتن سهمی بزرگ در شکست پروژه‌ها از منظر هزینه و زمان، همواره دغدغه مدیران پروژه بوده است. ارتباط میان پیچیدگی پروژه و مدل‌سازی ریسک‌های ناشی از آن، هدف این مطالعه است تا به دریافت وابستگی بین آن‌ها و اهداف پروژه، کمک ‌کند.
روش: در گام نخست، به بررسی تاریخچه و مفهوم پروژه‌های پیچیده در ادبیات موضوع پرداخته شد و عوامل بالقوه ایجاد ریسک با توجه به ریشه‌های پیچیدگی در پروژه شناسایی شدند؛ سپس با توجه به نوع قرارداد پروژه، برای فعالیت‌های متفاوت پاسخ به ریسک و یافتن نزدیک‌ترین گزینه بهینه از منظر شاخص‌های مالی، مدلی جامع پیشنهاد شد. برای آزمایش مدل، ریسک‌های یک پروژه موردی، بررسی شد و برای هر یک از ریسک‌ها، نمودارهای شاخص هزینه ـ پاسخ به‌طور جداگانه محاسبه و ترسیم شد.
یافته‌ها: مطالعات میدانی نشان داد که ریسک‌ها به‌طور یکسان بر همه ابعاد پروژه تأثیر نمی‌گذارند. تأثیر ریسک هم به رویداد ریسک و هم به اقدام‌های مدیریتی در برخورد با رویداد احتمالی و زمان‏بندی آن بستگی دارد. تأثیرهای هزینه‌ای آن نیز، به‌صورت آبشاری در سازمانی که پروژه اجرا می‏شود، تأثیر می‌گذارد.
نتیجه‌گیری: در پروژه‌های پیچیده ساختمانی، از میان معیارهای ایجادکننده پیچیدگی، سه معیار محتوا، سازمان‌دهی و محیط خارجی پروژه، بیشترین ایجادکننده ریسک شناسایی شدند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating the Response to Risks in Complex Construction Projects Using the Fuzzy TOPSIS Method

نویسندگان [English]

  • Omid Tasa 1
  • Mahmoud Gholabchi 2
  • Mehdi Ravanshadnia 3
1 Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Prof., Department of Project and Construction Management, School of Architecture, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3 Associate Prof., Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Objective: The swift expansion of intricate projects in the global construction industry has prompted numerous investigations in the last twenty years, highlighting the significance of comprehending project intricacy for the triumph of construction project management. Identifying, assessing, and ranking procedures in response to risk is a crucial yet currently difficult aspect of project management to handle intricate projects at every phase of their existence effectively. Project managers have consistently focused on complexity and its linked hazards since it is a significant factor in project cost and time delays. This study explores the correlation between project complexity and modeling its outcomes' risks.
Methods: The study employed a deductive, positivistic methodology. The literature review examined the history and definition of complex projects. The risk factors were identified based on the underlying causes of the project's complexity. To achieve the best possible outcome in financial terms, a comprehensive model was proposed that considered the type of project contract with different risk response activities. The model was then tested by analyzing the risks associated with a sample project, and cost-response index graphs were generated for each risk individually and aggregated.
Results: This research aimed to examine the current state and developments in project complexity research and to provide valuable insights for scholars and practitioners. The study's findings indicated that risks do not impact all projects equally. It was found that the actual effects of a risk event depend not only on the event itself but also on the management actions taken to address the contingency and their timing. These factors can influence the severity of the problems caused by the event and its ripple effects throughout the project organization.
Conclusion: According to the results of this field study, risks do not uniformly affect all projects. The actual impact of a risk event is contingent not only on the nature of the event itself but also on the managerial response to the contingency and its timing. These factors can influence the severity of problems caused by the event and the cascading effects within the project organization. While no single set of guidelines can guarantee project success, it is essential to recognize that the process is not random. A better understanding of the organizational dynamics that affect project performance and the factors contributing to risks in complex projects is a crucial precondition for creating a cross-functional solid team capable of managing risks before they negatively impact project outcomes. Therefore, this study can represent the first attempt to investigate the relationship between project complexity, risk consequences, and financial goals in complex construction projects. Among the various criteria contributing to complexity, the project's content, organization, and external environment were identified as the most significant risk generators in complex construction projects.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Complexity
  • Complex project
  • Risk
  • response to risk
  • Fuzzy TOPSIS

مراجع

تاسا، امید، گلابچی، محمود و روانشادنیا، مهدی (1401). شناسایی و بررسی عوامل پیچیدگی در پروژه‌های صنعتی ایران با استفاده از مدل معادلات ساختاری (مطالعه موردی: پروژه چند منظوره (تونل، سد و نیروگاه) اومااویا در کشور سریلانکا. مهندسی تونل و فضاهای زیرزمینی، 11(1)، 47-71.
مهاجری برج قلعه، رضا؛ پوررستم، توحید؛ منصور شریف‌لو، ناصر؛ مجروحی سردرود، جواد و صفا، ابراهیم (1401). بهبود فرایند مدیریت ریسک پروژه در پروژه‌های ساخت با ارائه یک روش پیشنهادی بر اساس استاندارد PMBOK و مدل SHAMPU. مهندسی سازه و ساخت، 9(5)، 5-19.
 
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مدیریت صنعتی
دوره 15، شماره 2
1402
صفحه 335-364

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