Measuring and Scenario Planning for Business Process Management Maturity Developing Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Technique

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Assistant Prof., Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 Prof., Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

3 Assistant Prof., Department of Information Technology Engineering, University of Mehr Albourz, Tehran, Iran.

4 Ph.D., Department of Operation Research Management, Pardis Albourz of Tehran University, Tehran, Iran.


Objective: Today, one of the most important concerns of managers is to find a way to measure the maturity level of Business Process Management (BPM) and to recognize improvement conditions. Hence, the aim of this research is to measure and plan various scenarios in order to develop business process management. A Maturity Model has three dimensions: Levels, factors and measurement tools. In this paper, the dimensions are recognized via a comprehensive literature review. Finally, they are conceptualized, measured and a scenario planning is developed.
Methods: In this research, the extracted factors and indices form the basic approach of the conceptual model and are validated by a confirmatory factor analysis. Regarding the structure of the conceptual model, factors and indices of all levels of process maturity, a causal loop has been developed based on a fuzzy cognitive map that illustrates the maturity aspects and their relationships to provide scenario planning for developing maturity.
Results: The developed BPM maturity model classifies the maturity levels into the following stages, primary, managed, standardized, predictable and innovative. Also, the findings show that there are 33 process concepts that lead to the development of a business process maturity level. Furthermore, by the result of this research, if the deployment level of concepts in the organization is determined, organizations can measure the level of their BPM maturity and provide scenario planning.
Conclusion: 33 BPM maturity concepts can support organizations as a road map to promote maturity level from 0 to 100. In addition, the implementation of the results of this research into case study show that the current status of business processes is graded as level 3 of the maturity level and its score is 36 of 100.


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