Mathematical Models for Enhancing Humanitarian Aid in Road Accidents: A Comprehensive Literature Review

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Industrial Management, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.

2 Prof., Department of Industrial Management, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.

3 Associate Prof., Department of Industrial Management, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.

10.22059/imj.2025.398767.1008256

Abstract

Objective: Globally, road traffic accidents cause significant humanitarian, social, and economic costs, resulting in the need to have efficient and fast response mechanisms. Data-based tools can improve humanitarian aid's speed and equity using mathematical modeling, especially optimization, stochastic, fuzzy, and System Dynamics methods. This paper provides a systematic review of the role of these models in helping with post-accident humanitarian strategies and determining key factors that can affect the success of such models due to uncertainty.
Methods: A systematic review was performed under PRISMA guidelines using the PICOS framework. Scopus and Web of Science literature were analyzed, focusing on peer-reviewed studies applying mathematical modeling to humanitarian response in road-accident contexts. Models were categorized by data type (stochastic, deterministic, fuzzy), method (exact vs. heuristic), and capability in managing uncertainty and feedback. Special attention was given to System Dynamics, which captures nonlinear feedback loops and time delays in prevention and response systems. 
Results: Recent research highlights a shift toward predictive analytics, IoT, and machine learning to improve humanitarian logistics. Stochastic and fuzzy models effectively address real-world uncertainties, while dynamic and feedback-based models, particularly SD, outperform static ones by enhancing resource allocation, reducing response times, and strengthening decision-making.
Conclusion: The mathematical modeling (in particular, with integration into the System Dynamics) demonstrates the possibility of humanitarian aid optimization in road accident handling. The paper highlights evidence-based, adaptive, and feedback-driven solutions through real-time information and uncertainty modeling to develop resilient, efficient, and scientific information-informed emergency response systems.

Keywords


Annam, S., Cheranchery, M. F., Chakraborty, A., & Maitra, S. (2023). Areas of intervention for enhancing the knowledge of safe driving: An experience in West Bengal, India. Case Studies on Transport Policy, 13, 101065. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2023.101065
Awan, S., Mehmood, Z., Nazeer Chaudhry, H., Tariq, U., Rehman, A., Saba, T., & Rashid, M. (2022). Profiling Casualty Severity Levels of Road Accidents Using Weighted Majority Voting. Computers, Materials & Continua, 71(3), 4609–4626. https://doi.org/10.32604/cmc.2022.019404
Başkan, İ. B., Sana, F., & Uğurlu, Ö. (n.d.). Navigational Safety in the Suez Canal: HFACS-PV Analysis of Human-Organizational Factors and Environmental Risks with Comparative Insights. Turkish Journal of Maritime and Marine Sciences, 11, Article 3. https://doi.org/10.52998/trjmms.1741624
Bisht, L. S., & Tiwari, G. (2022). Assessment of Fatal Rear-End Crash Risk Factors of an Expressway in India: A Random Parameter NB Modeling Approach. https://doi.org/10.1061/JTEPBS.0000767
Bobermin, M., & Ferreira, S. (2021). A novel approach to set driving simulator experiments based on traffic crash data. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 150, 105938. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2020.105938
Chen, J., Zhang, J., Wang, P., & Jin, Y. (2025). A k-nearest text similarity-BiGRU approach for duration prediction of traffic accidents on expressways. Discover Applied Sciences, 7(7), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-025-07366-7
Cordeiro, E. A., & Pitombeira-Neto, A. R. (2023). Deep reinforcement learning for the dynamic vehicle dispatching problem: An event-based approach (No. arXiv:2307.07508). arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2307.07508
Duan, X., Niu, T., & Huang, Q. (2018). An Improved Shuffled Frog Leaping Algorithm and Its Application in Dynamic Emergency Vehicle Dispatching. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2018(1), 7896926. https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/7896926
Garnaik, M. M., Giri, J. P., & Panda, A. (2023). Impact of highway design on traffic safety: How geometric elements affect accident risk. Ecocycles, 9(1), Article 1. https://doi.org/10.19040/ecocycles.v9i1.263
Ghasemi, R., Alidoosti, A., Hosnavi, R., & Norouzian Reykandeh, J. (2018). Identifying and Prioritizing Humanitarian Supply Chain Practices to Supply Food before an Earthquake. Industrial Management Journal. 10(1),1-16.https://doi.org/10.22059/imj.2018.234645.1007246  (in Persian)
Gheisari, M. (2022). Identifying Influencing Factors of Road Accidents in Emerging Road Accident Black spots (No. 2022090338). Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202209.0338.v1
Global status report on road safety 2018. (n.d.). Retrieved August 7, 2024, from https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241565684
Gupta, R., & Chaudhari, O. K. (2020). Application of Fuzzy Logic in Prevention of Road Accidents Using Multi Criteria Decision Alert. Current Journal of Applied Science and Technology, 51–61. https://doi.org/10.9734/cjast/2020/v39i3631073
Hamdan, S. M. S., Barakat, S., Mahfouz, K. H., & Ghuzlan, K. A. (2023). Traffic Accident Severity Prediction Model using AI. 2023 Advances in Science and Engineering Technology International Conferences (ASET), 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1109/ASET56582.2023.10180861
Hu, Q., Mehdizadeh, A., Vinel, A., Cai, M., Rigdon, S. E., Zhang, W., & Megahed, F. M. (2023). Shortest Path Problems with a Crash Risk Objective. Sage Journals. https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981231195053
Kayisu, A. K., Bahnasawi, M. E., Egbine, K., Alsisi, M., Kambale, W. V., Bokoro, P. N., & Kyamakya, K. (2025). System Dynamics in Road Safety: A Comprehensive Overview with Selected Use-Cases. https://pure.uj.ac.za/en/publications/system-dynamics-in-road-safety-a-comprehensive-overview-with-sele
Kizito, A., & Semwanga, A. R. (2021). Modeling the Complexity of Road Accidents Prevention: A System Dynamics Approach. Https://Services.Igi-Global.Com/Resolvedoi/Resolve.Aspx?Doi=10.4018/IJSDA.2020040102. https://www.igi-global.com/article/modeling-the-complexity-of-road-accidents-prevention/www.igi-global.com/article/modeling-the-complexity-of-road-accidents-prevention/247984
Kumar, N., Acharya, D., & Lohani, D. (2021). An IoT-Based Vehicle Accident Detection and Classification System Using Sensor Fusion. IEEE Internet of Things Journal, 8(2), 869–880. https://doi.org/10.1109/JIOT.2020.3008896
Mbarek, A., Jiber, M., Yahyaouy, A., & Sabri, A. (2023). Black spots identification on rural roads based on extreme learning machine. International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE), 13(3), 3149. https://doi.org/10.11591/ijece.v13i3.pp3149-3160
Mohanty, A., Mohapatra, A. G., Kumar Mohanty, S., Yang, T., Singh Rathore, R., Alkhayyat, A., & Gupta, D. (2025). Integrating Cognitive Intelligence and VANET for Effective Traffic Congestion Detection in Smart Urban Mobility. IEEE Access, 13, 61538–61548. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2025.3557276
Nain, A., Jain, D., & Trivedi, A. (2023). Multi-criteria decision-making methods: Application in humanitarian operations. Benchmarking: An International Journal, 31(6), 2090–2128. https://doi.org/10.1108/BIJ-11-2022-0673
Park, R. C., & Hong, E. J. (2022). Urban traffic accident risk prediction for knowledge-based mobile multimedia service. Personal and Ubiquitous Computing, 26(2), 417–427. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00779-020-01442-y
Parung, J., Santoso, A., Prayogo, D. N., Griselda, F., & Tedjakusuma, A. P. (2022). Multi-objective Location-Transportation Problem for Relief Distribution. Proceedings of the 19th International Symposium on Management (INSYMA 2022), Surabaya, Indonesia (Offline). https://www.atlantis-press.com/proceedings/insyma-22/125977329
Patil, A., & Madaan, J. (2024). A Study on the Research Clusters in the Humanitarian Supply Chain Literature: A Systematic Review. Logistics, 8(4), 128. https://doi.org/10.3390/logistics8040128
Ren, C., Wang, X., Gao, G., & Li, J. (2020). Urban Regional Logistics Distribution Path Planning Considering Road Characteristics. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2020(1), 2413459. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/2413459
Sadeghi Moghadam, M. R., Taghizadeh Yazdi, M. R., & Noferesti, R. (2022). Designing a Humanitarian Supply Chain Coordination Model for Housing Reconstruction after Floods: An Agent-Based Simulation. Industrial Management Journal. 13(3),467–491. https://doi.org/10.22059/imj.2021.324747.1007848  (in Persian)
Santos, D., Saias, J., Quaresma, P., & Nogueira, V. B. (2021). Machine Learning Approaches to Traffic Accident Analysis and Hotspot Prediction. Computers, 10(12), Article 12. https://doi.org/10.3390/computers10120157
Schlögl, M. (2020). A multivariate analysis of environmental effects on road accident occurrence using a balanced bagging approach. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 136, 105398. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2019.105398
Singh, A., Kapur, A., Anand, A., Vaidh, D., Luthra, G., & Boominathan, P. (2022). Road Accident Monitoring System and Dynamic Insurance Pricing Using Fog Computing. 2022 Sixth International Conference on I-SMAC (IoT in Social, Mobile, Analytics and Cloud) (I-SMAC), 485–490. https://doi.org/10.1109/I-SMAC55078.2022.9987333
Stević, Ž., Das, D. K., & Kopić, M. (2021). A Novel Multiphase Model for Traffic Safety Evaluation: A Case Study of South Africa. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2021(1), 5584599. https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/5584599
Sun, T., Zhang, Z., & Lu, L. (2024). Severity of traffic accidents on horizontal curves and their determinants: A bayesian network and information theory model. EBSCOhost. https://openurl.ebsco.com/EPDB%3Agcd%3A11%3A29943643/detailv2?sid=ebsco%3Aplink%3Ascholar&id=ebsco%3Agcd%3A178403545&crl=c&link_origin=scholar.google.com
Swales, J. (2014). Create a research space (CARS) model of research introductions (pp. 12–15) [Writing about writing: A college reader].
Tan, K., Liu, W., Xu, F., & Li, C. (2023). Optimization Model and Algorithm of Logistics Vehicle Routing Problem under Major Emergency. Mathematics, 11(5), 1274. https://doi.org/10.3390/math11051274
Temiz, S., Kazanç, H. C., Soysal, M., & Çimen, M. (2025). A probabilistic bi‐objective model for a humanitarian location‐routing problem under uncertain demand and road closure. https://doi.org/10.1111/itor.13475
Wu, M., Jia, H., Luo, D., Luo, H., Zhao, F., & Li, G. (2023). A multi-attention dynamic graph convolution network with cost-sensitive learning approach to road-level and minute-level traffic accident prediction. IET Intelligent Transport Systems, 17(2), 270–284. https://doi.org/10.1049/itr2.12254
Yadav, N., Thakur, U., Poonia, A., & Chandel, R. (2021). Post-Crash Detection and Traffic Analysis. 2021 8th International Conference on Signal Processing and Integrated Networks (SPIN), 1092–1097. https://doi.org/10.1109/SPIN52536.2021.9565964
Zainal, I., Lestari, F., Gunawan, S., Adiwibowo, A., Kadir, A., & Ramadhan, N. A. (2022). FIRE VEHICLE ROUTE, RESPONSE TIME, AND SERVICE COVERAGE OPTIMIZATIONS IN PEKOJAN URBAN VILLAGE, TAMBORA SUBDISTRICT FIRE HOTSPOT OF JAKARTA CITY, INDONESIA. PREPOTIF : Jurnal Kesehatan Masyarakat, 6(2), 1454–1468. https://doi.org/10.31004/prepotif.v6i2.5026
Zhu, S., Zhang, S., Lang, H., Jiang, C., & Xing, Y. (2022). The Situation of Hazardous Materials Accidents during Road Transportation in China from 2013 to 2019. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(15), Article 15. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19159632
Zou, Y., Zhang, Y., & Cheng, K. (2021). Exploring the Impact of Climate and Extreme Weather on Fatal Traffic Accidents. Sustainability, 13(1), Article 1. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13010390