Selection of Organizational Strategic Projects via GPD Method (CASE STUDY: MAPNA GROUP)

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Associate Prof., Faculty of Management, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran

2 MSc. in MBA, Faculty of Management , Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran


This prioritization of the projects in the organization is a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) that because of the uncertainties existing in experts judgments, these cannot be represented accurately with numbers. The scope of this research is the introduction of the Grey system theory (Grey Possibility Degree Method) and application in ranking strategic organizational projects in an uncertain environment. First, qualitative indicators, which were extracted from the company’s strategic documents (strategic indicators), are weighted using Grey verbal variables. Subsequently, the effect of each indicator on the projects was investigated. After that, using the GPD algorithm, the projects under study were ranked by looking at the probability of how close each choice was to the preferred choice. Based on the probabilities found from studying each project, the choice that was closest to the preferred choice was ranked higher and using the above method, have been judged by the company executives as logical and acceptable.


  1. Ataei, M. (2011). Multi Critria Decision Making. Shahrood, Universityof Shahrood press (in Persian).
  2. Dabbaghi, A. & Malek, A. M. (2011). Proposing a procedure to evaluate and rank corporate vision statements using a mixed methodology. Industrial Management, 2(4): 57-74 (in persian).
  3. Kazemi, A. & Modarres, M. & Mehregan, M. R. (2012). Transport energy Demand Forecasting Using Markov Chain Grey Model: Case Study of Iran. Industrial Management, 7(3): 117-132 (in persian).
  4. Kuo, M. Sh. & Liang, G. Sh. (2011). Combining VIKOR with GRA techniques to evaluate service quality of airports under fuzzy environment, Expert Systems with Applications, 38(3): 1304-1312.
  5. Lin, Y.H. & Lee, P.C., & Chang, T.P., & Ting, H.I (2008). Multi-attribute group decision making model under the condition of uncertain information. Automation in Construction, 17 (6): 792-797.
  6. Liu, S. & Lin Forrest, J.Y. & Yang Y. (2011). A Brief Introduction to Grey Systems Theory Grey Systems and Intelligent Services (GSIS). China, IEEE International Conference on Nanjing.
  7. Liu, S. & Lin Forrest, J.Y. (2010). Grey Systems: Theory and Applications. Berlin, Springer-Verlag.
  8. Mohammadi, A. & Molaei, N. (2011). Applications of GMCDM in Companies Performance Appraisal. Industrial Management, 4(2): 125-142 (in persian).
  9. Malek, A. M. & Dabbaghi, A. (2012). Fundamentals of Grey Theories. Tehran, Termeh  Press (in persian).
  10. Omoniwa, B. (2014). A Solution to Multi Criteria Robot Selection Problems Using Grey Relational Analysis, International Journal of Computer and Information Technology, 3(2), 328-332.
  11. Rahimnia, F. & Moghadasian, M. & Mashreghi, E. (2011). Application of grey theory approach to evaluation of organizational vision. Emerlad Group Publishing Limited, 1(1): 33-46.
  12. Sadeghi, M. & Razavi, S. H. & Saberi, N. (2013). Application of Grey TOPSIS in Preference Ordering of Action Plans in Balanced Scorecard and Strategy Map. Informatica, 24(4): 619-635.
  13. Slavec, N. & Jovic, A. (2012). Application of Grey System Theory to Software Projects Ranking. ATKAFF, 53 (3): 284-293.
  14. Taghavifard, M. T. & Malek, A. M. (2012). Using Grey decision making approach to ranking Key Performance Indicators (KPI) and increase effectiveness of strategic plans. Journal of Industrial Management Studies, 22(9): 135-165 (in persian).
  15. Wey, W.M. & Wu, K.Y. (2007). Using ANP priorities with goal programming in resource allocation in transportation. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 46 (7): 985-1000.
  16. Xie, N. & Liu, S. (2010). Novel methods on comparing grey numbers, Applied Mathematical Modeling, 34 (2): 415-423.
  17. Yaghoubi, N. & M., Baradaran, V. & Abdi, M. (2011). Planning a model for supplier selection with AHP and greysystemstheory (A case study in a cement manufacturing company), Business and Management Review, 1 (7): 9-19.