Univrsity of Tehran PressIndustrial Management Journal3115-73867120150321Relative performance of statistical and fuzzy regression models in estimation of gasoline demand in Iranمقایسه عملکرد روش های رگرسیون آماری و فازی در تخمین تابع تقاضای بنزین (مطالعۀ موردی در ایران)1195068410.22059/imj.2015.50684ENMohammad RezaTaghizadehYazdiAssistant Prof., Industrial Management, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, IranHosseinMirshojaeian HosseiniAssistant Prof., Interdisciplinary Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, IranEzzatollahAsgharizadehAssociate Prof., Industrial Management, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, IranHamedShakouri GanjaviAssociate Prof., Industrial Management, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, IranJournal Article20130901 Gasoline is the most important energy product in the passenger transportation sector in Iran. Gasoline demand survey has a high priority in Iran because of its ever-increasing consumption. The most important challenges for this purpose are uncertainties resulting from structural failure of economy, changing of policies and lack of accurate data. This research aims to specify the variables explaining the gasoline demand in Iran and to estimate gasoline demand by using the statistical and fuzzy regression models over the period 1981-2007. Finally, the models were compared using standard criteria. The results indicate that both methods have enough accuracy for estimating and forecasting gasoline demand. In addition, there is a significant relationship between gasoline price, car per capita and trend as explanatory variables of gasoline demand per capita.
https://imj.ut.ac.ir/article_50684_d5de4a54a75f0db2f4d900d4d84c2c6c.pdfUnivrsity of Tehran PressIndustrial Management Journal3115-73867120150321A project portfolio selection model with project interaction & resources interdependency consideration using artificial neural networksارائة مدلی برای انتخاب سبد پروژه با آثار متقابل و اشتراک منابع بین پروژه ای با استفاده از شبکه های عصبی مصنوعی21425210610.22059/imj.2015.52106ENBehroozDorriAssociate Prof., Management and Accounting Faculty, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, IranBehrangAsadiPhD Candidate, Finance, University of Tehran, Tehran, IranSasanMazaheriPhD Candidate, Management- OR, University of Tehran, Tehran, IranJournal Article20140111 A vast number of organizational projects as well as complexity of decision making process can cause particular challenges for project management and its leadership. In order to use organization assets and opportunities efficiently, it is necessary that manager implement a comprehensive multidimensional project portfolio management system that considers economic, social and technical details of the projects. Resource constraint compels managers to select operational proposal projects. Thus managers can maximize organizational utility due to project portfolio’s resource constraint. This study considers the interactive effects of project portfolio evaluation and sharing organizational project resources with respect to its evaluation and choice of the projects.. In this two-step model, first a branch and bound algorithm with resource interaction was utilized to screen maximal portfolio and, in the next step, each portfolio was evaluated based on artificial neural networks to rank the end project portfolios. Also, the ANN scores are strongly correlated with the DEA and COLS efficiency scores.
https://imj.ut.ac.ir/article_52106_c4bb6c44f847f2656e40614b0b66abc8.pdfUnivrsity of Tehran PressIndustrial Management Journal3115-73867120150321موازنة زمان- هزینه برای بیشینهسازی ارزش خالص فعلی پیمانکار با الگوهای پرداخت هزینه و محدودیت منابع با استفاده از الگوریتمهای تکاملی (مطالعة موردی: بخش محدودی از پروژة احداث پالایشگاه میعانات گازی بندرعباس)43645385810.22059/imj.2015.53858ENMostafaZareieMaster of Industrial Engineering, University of Imam Hossein, IranHossein AliHasanpoorAssistant Prof., Industrial Engineering, University of Imam Hossein, IranJournal Article20130824گزینههای انتخابی برای زمانبندی ترتیب فعالیتهای پروژه برای اتمام پروژه، جواب منحصربهفرد ندارد، بلکه مجموعهای از جوابها را شامل میشود که هیچکدام بر دیگری ترجیح ندارند؛ بنابراین، انتخاب بهترین گزینه برای انجامدادن فعالیتها مهم است، بهطوریکه هزینه و زمان انجامدادن پروژه، متناسب با دیدگاه پیمانکار یا کارفرما باشد. درنتیجه، در این تحقیق فعالیتهای بخشی از پروژة احداث پالایشگاه میعانات گازی بندرعباس شامل 35 فعالیت و دارای دو منابع تجدیدپذیر شامل نیروی انسانی و ماشینآلات بهعنوان مسئلة نمونه انتخاب شد و برای حل آن یک مدل ریاضی زمانبندی پروژه با اهداف چندگانه بر مبنای الگوهای پرداخت هزینه و ملاحظه محدودیت منابع ارائه شد. از آنجاکه این مسئله از جمله مسائل بهینهسازی ترکیبی در خانوادة مسائل NP-hardمحسوب میشود، برای حل مدل پیشنهادی از الگوریتمهای تکاملی چندهدفه NSGA-II و MOPSO برای زمانبندی پروژه استفاده شد و عملکرد الگوریتمها با استفاده از شاخصهای مقایسهای مقایسه شدند. درنهایت، برای اعتبارسنجی، جوابهای الگوریتم پیشنهادی با جوابهای دقیق از نرمافزار GAMS مقایسه شد که نتایج نشان میدهد الگوریتم پیشنهادی کارا و همگرا به جواب بهینه است.https://imj.ut.ac.ir/article_53858_cf9ad240c8b84ae38ff9937faffaa3ea.pdfUnivrsity of Tehran PressIndustrial Management Journal3115-73867120150321Multi-objective optimization of criminal trial process using descrete event computer simulation and design of experimentبهینه سازی همزمان چند هدفه فرایند دادرسی کیفری به کمک شبیه سازی کآمپیوتری گسسته- پیشامد و طراحی آزمایش ها65825286010.22059/imj.2015.52860ENLeilaAlizadehMSc. Student, School of Industrial Engineering, Islamic Azad University, South of Tehran Branch, Tehran, IranRassoulNoorossanaProf., Industrial Engineering Department, Science and Technolgy University, Tehran, IranSadighRaissiAssistant Prof., School of Industrial Engineering, Islamic Azad University, South of Tehran Branch, Tehran, IranJournal Article20140606 Since the analysis of complex services systems by using mathematical modeling techniques, with considering the random patterns prevailing in them, is so difficult or probably impossible, improvement guidelines are often followed based on the experts' experiences using qualitative methods. In the present paper, by employing a discrete event computer simulation methodology, criminal trial system has been quantitatively analyzed in a selected court in Iran and appropriate operational strategies to improve a couple of system performance indicators have been provided using sophisticated statistical tools such as design of experiments, hypothesis testing, regression analysis, sensitivity analysis and multi-objective optimization. Simulation results show possibility of a 27% reduction in average responding time on penal claims and simultaneously 80% reduction on repeated referral rate. Also, in order to examine analytical details, computer simulation model was validated using hypothesis testing method on a few dummy response variables.
https://imj.ut.ac.ir/article_52860_54374106f64bb57d2457e5103fa482d3.pdfUnivrsity of Tehran PressIndustrial Management Journal3115-73867120150321Configuring integrated supply chain network stochastic strategicپیکره بندی شبکة زنجیرة تأمین یکپارچة راهبردی تصادفی831055068210.22059/imj.2015.50682ENHamidrezaFallah LajimiPhD Student in Industrial Management, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, IranAhmadJafarnejadProf., Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, IranMohammadrezaMehrganProf., Faculty of management, University of Tehran, Tehran, IranLaayaOlfatAssociate Prof., Faculty of Management and Accounting, Allame Tabatabaei University, Tehran, IranJournal Article20140213 This research provides an optimization tool for use by supply chain managers in the design and operation of manufacturing- distribution networks under uncertain demand conditions. The problem under consideration consists of determining the supply chain infrastructure; raw material purchases, shipments, and inventories; and finished product production quantities, inventories, and shipments needed to achieve maximum profit while fulfilling demand and minimizing profit variability and unsatisfied demand. This research presented a model to supply chain infrastructure design. In this research, a multi-period, multi objective mixed integer robust optimization formulation of the strategic model is presented to account for the probabilistic demand data. For this purpose, numerical examples are presented and solved by LINDO software.
https://imj.ut.ac.ir/article_50682_b8cd9e95e38eecbf3415cb651ea52157.pdfUnivrsity of Tehran PressIndustrial Management Journal3115-73867120150321Identifying and ranking the industry and technology considerations affecting transfer of high technologies at various Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs)شناسایی و رتبه بندی ملاحظات صنعت و فناوری در انتقال فناوری های پیشرفته در سطوح گوناگون آمادگی فناوری (TRLs)1071245289510.22059/imj.2015.52895ENEsmaeelKalantariMSc., Entrepreneurship- New Business, Faculty of Entrepreneurship, University of Tehran, IranJahanshahCharkhtab MoghadamPhD Candidate, Strategic Management, Supreme National Defense University, Tehran, IranJournal Article20140831 The current research aims to study the industrial and technological concerns within transfer process of high-tech regarding the technology readiness levels (TRLs). The importance of the subject is emphasized because different TRLs have special considerations and the risks of high-tech transfer can be reduced considering them. The main goal of this study is to identify and rank the industrial and technological concerns in transfer of high-tech at various levels of technology readiness. The study is applied-type and the data were collected using mixed method. Research findings show that 32 elements as seven aspects of industry and technology considerations influence the transfer of high-techs. The influence of these factors varies at various TRLs, such that as we move toward higher readiness levels (1 to 9), the influence of industry considerations is more than that of technology considerations. It is highly recommended for companies active in the field of high-techs transfer to take into account industry and technology considerations and their influences on different TRLs.
https://imj.ut.ac.ir/article_52895_41c3ee372b9aa4f4b0fc344f468b9d04.pdfUnivrsity of Tehran PressIndustrial Management Journal3115-73867120150321Locating shelters and telecom-relief centers considering uncertainty in the disaster time
(Case study: flood disaster in region #3 of Tehran)مکانیابی پناهگاهها و مراکز امدادی- مخابراتی با درنظرگرفتن عدم قطعیت در زمان بحران (مطالعة موردی: بحران سیل در منطقة 3 تهران)1251495251510.22059/imj.2015.52515ENAhmadMohammadiMSc. Student, Industrial Engineering, Department of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, IranSaiedYaghoubiAssistant Prof., Industrial Engineering, Department of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, IranJamalNahofti KohneMSc. Student, Industrial Engineering, Department of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, IranMirsamanPishvaieAssistant Prof., Industrial Engineering, Department of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, IranJournal Article20141116 The most important issues that should be considered in studying disaster management include temporary settlement of injured population, supplying relief commodities, designing an appropriate communication infrastructure for communication during disaster. For this purpose, in this paper a model has been proposed for locating shelters, warehouses of relief commodities, and also telecom towers, whereas warehouses of relief commodities and telecom towers have been considered as the telecom-relief center for reducing costs and improving services. The problem has been modeled as a nonlinear and bi-objective model, while for solving the problem normalization method and linearization approach have been applied. With respect to significance of unstable conditions and dynamic environment in natural disasters, the model has been considered under uncertainty and possibilistic programming approach is used to cope with this issue. The proposed model is implemented in the flood disaster case study of Tehran and the obtained results show that the optimal location of the facility can help the decision makers of disaster management in this area to increase service provision during disaster.
https://imj.ut.ac.ir/article_52515_dd29e058a25d96c51b2ac6ef910cfea1.pdfUnivrsity of Tehran PressIndustrial Management Journal3115-73867120150321Identifying and prioritizing measures for evaluating the performance of services supply chainشناسایی و اولویت بندی معیارهایی برای ارزیابی عملکرد زنجیره تامین خدمات1511745068310.22059/imj.2015.50683ENMahmoodrezaMostaghimiAssistant Prof., Faculty of Literature and Human Sciences, University of Gilan, Rasht, IranMohammadrahimRamezanianAssistant Prof., Faculty of Literature and Human Sciences, University of Gilan, Rasht, IranMohammadEsmailzadehMSc. Student in Industrial Management, Faculty of Literature and Human Sciences, University of Gilan, Rasht, IranJournal Article20140127 Compared to industrial companies, we have neither enough related literature nor available researches concerning the issue of evaluating the supply chain management as well as supply chain performance. Therefore, the current article aims to identify and prioritize measures of evaluating the performance of services supply chain. Thus, we first review the related text and define the processes of supply chain. Also, we explain the measures of evaluating the mentioned processes; finally, we sort the measures in accordance with Score and Seroquel models and we design the respected decision tree. The prepared questionnaires were distributed among the managers who are considered as the experts in service industries. Then, after gathering the completed questioners, we used fuzzy AHP for prioritizing and sorting the measures. The results show that the reliability indicator has the highest importance while intangibility has the least importance in supply chain services.
https://imj.ut.ac.ir/article_50683_bb6ed12010a9bf5dbdb5c6a4e260f751.pdfUnivrsity of Tehran PressIndustrial Management Journal3115-73867120150321Evaluating and ranking construction projects contractors using F-PROMETHEE (Case study: Mehr Housing Project of Hashtgerd New Town)بهکارگیری F-PROMETHEE برای ارزیابی و رتبهبندی پیمانکاران پروژههای عمرانی (مطالعة موردی: انبوهسازان مسکن مهر شهر جدید هشتگرد)1751885385910.22059/imj.2015.53859ENMahdiNasrollahiPhD Candidate, Operations Research Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, IranJournal Article20130414 In this paper, a model for evaluating and ranking constructive projects will be presented. This model is based on six key criteria and a conceptual framework. These main evaluation criteria include: good history, equipment and machinery, management and technical staff, economic - financial skills and experience, and scientific and technical capabilities. These criteria and their weights were derived from previous studies. The vagueness of the linguistic terms in the evaluation process required employment of fuzzy numbers. Then, the fuzzy PROMETHEE method was used for ranking the projects. To test the model and as a case study, contractors of Mehr housing projects in Hashtgerd new Town were ranked. This model can be used for evaluating and ranking contractors for various construction projects.
https://imj.ut.ac.ir/article_53859_207258f688fc20b86474fefb5d291373.pdf