University of Tehran Press Industrial Management Journal 3115-7386 5 2 2013 12 22 A System Dynamics Approach for Analyzing the Human Resource Changes in Sedan Tire Industry of Iran تحلیل تغییرات نیروی انسانی صنعت تایر خودروی سواری کشور با رویکرد پویایی‌های سیستمی 23 48 50266 10.22059/imj.2013.50266 EN Morteza Elahi M.Sc. Student in Industrial Engineering, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran Mohammad Mehdi Lotfi Assistant Prof, Department of Industrial Engineering, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran Journal Article 2013 05 04 The human resource managers have to make strategic and prospective decisions to respond to the unexpected changes in national tire industry. In this regard, system dynamics is one of the most practical tools for searching causal structures in systems, simulating their behaviors against unpredicted variations, and making some reactive policies for possible future conditions. We try to predict and sensitively analyze the required human resource capacity of national sedan tire industry over the horizon of Iran 1404 vision through developing a system dynamics model. The structures of sedan tire industry are designed based on Sterman’s methodology and the recent 10 years corresponding data on the effective variables is identified. Collected data described by mathematical equations is then considered as the model’s input in Vensim. Based on the designed model, the behavior and final results of variables are evaluated until the end of time horizon. Numerical results indicated that the number of human resources employed in sedan tire industry at the end of Iran 1404 vision will approximately be equal to 15000. By establishing a sensitivity analysis, the effect of the key variables, particularly the demand, on sedan tire industry is examined and suggestions for making macro-planning policies for production and human resource in different conditions are provided.

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